Phyrex.Ni
Phyrex.Ni
No extravagance, no waste
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I believe the amount of money a person can earn through hard work is limited.
What can expand limited money infinitely is cognition.
And what can preserve infinitely large money is luck.
Luck itself is a kind of choice.
For example:
If you have 10,000 BTC when $BTC is at 10 dollars, first you need to have earned 100,000 dollars through hard work.
When Bitcoin rises to 1,000 dollars and you haven't sold any, that is your cognition.
And when Bitcoin rises to 100,000 dollars and you have never sold even one, I think that is your luck.
Nancy🩶
Ni Da, I have always had a blind spot, I hope you can enlighten me 🙏
First of all, I agree that choice is more important than effort.
But my blind spot is:
Don't we also need to "work hard" in order to make the "right" "choices"?
Without putting in effort to judge, we can't make the right choices, right?
It’s a cycle, we still have to work hard!
At first glance, this chart seems to be true. Indeed, during the tenures of these Federal Reserve chairmen, there were instances of pullbacks, but with some differences.
Arthur Burns took office in February 1970, with the largest pullback occurring in 1973-1974, about 3 years after taking office.
Paul Volcker took office in August 1979, with the largest pullback occurring in 1980-1982, less than 1 year after taking office.
Alan Greenspan took office in August 1987, with the largest pullback in October 1987, 2 months after taking office.
Ben Bernanke took office in February 2006, with the largest pullback in 2007-2009, 1 year after taking office.
Janet Yellen took office in February 2014, with the largest pullback in 2015-2016, 1 year after taking office.
Jerome Powell took office in February 2018, with the largest pullback in 2020, 2 years after taking office.
So, there is no absolute continuity here. From another perspective, what's more interesting is:
During Arthur Burns' tenure, the S&P 500's maximum gain was about 57%.
G. William Miller's was 17%.
Paul Volcker's was 220%.
Alan Greenspan's was 516%.
Ben Bernanke's was 141%.
Janet Yellen's was 54%.
Jerome Powell's was 189%.
However, I did a backtest based on Barclays' compilation of Federal Reserve chair transitions since 1930. Looking at point-to-point returns, the proportion of actual declines 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months after the transition is approximately 33%, 50%, and 33%, respectively.
So, this is not a guaranteed drop after a leadership change, but rather that volatility tends to amplify during transition periods.
0xkevin00
There is a mystical aspect to the US stock market: the stock market always falls when the Federal Reserve Chair changes.
The new Federal Reserve Chair is expected to take office in about two months.
If you are planning to dollar-cost average into US stocks recently, you might want to wait a month to buy the dip before getting in.
Below is a compilation of mystical data 👇
😆 Hahaha, this time no objections, I completely agree with Chris's suggestion. For many friends who find individual stocks troublesome, buying an index is very safe and also has a high degree of certainty, almost a no-brainer investment, like QQQ or VOO.
But I personally recommend buying $CSPX, the Ireland-registered S&P 500 UCITS ETF, iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF, accumulating type. Look up the benefits yourself.
Chris Lee
It's rare to catch some of Phyrex's traffic, haha! But most people don't understand individual stocks (many have paid their tuition fees, including myself, and not small amounts), lacking time and skills. However, AI as a tool can answer many questions we don't understand.
Actually, I've always advocated for asset allocation. Just holding coins without diversifying risk is risky, especially since most coins, particularly altcoins, are tail-end assets. Even for the big brother Bitcoin, the most important "factor" that drives its price up, according to much research, is only one thing: increased or even excessive liquidity.
So, you must do proper asset allocation. If you really don't understand individual stocks, then buy indexes and use dollar-cost averaging. Everyone knows the next 5 years will be a big AI tech wave, so buying QQQ should be fine, right?!
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tesla are good long-term heavy holdings, especially Bitcoin, which is a belief shared by insiders including myself. I am grateful to Satoshi Nakamoto and Li Lin for letting me live in a nice house in Shanghai and enjoy a relatively free life.
The depreciation of the US dollar won't stop, and Bitcoin still has great potential in the future.
As I always say, proper asset allocation helps achieve stable returns and risk control, supporting the future of our families!
Pretty good, please help share, support the young friends.
华山令狐冲
This is a job-seeking post from a recent graduate:
Hello everyone, I am Linghu Chong from Mount Hua, you can also call me Peter
Mid-April. After three rounds of interviews, I was happily offered a verbal offer from @Polymarket, but last week I was informed that due to internal team adjustments, I am currently unable to officially join.
Only two months left until graduation, time is tight
Therefore, I am posting to seek job opportunities.
Here is my basic information:
· Graduating this July, male, 21 years old, majoring in Journalism
· Mainly looking for opportunities in Web3 / Crypto, also open to AI and internet-related positions
· Capable of growth marketing, user operations, product operations, community operations, marketing and business, APAC market-related roles
· Interned at Kuaishou and Baidu, both in core operational business; most recent internship involved exchange-related business
· Over two and a half years of cryptocurrency trading experience, long-term follower of top-tier markets, sensitive to user, community, and market changes
· Served as an ambassador for multiple Web3 projects, familiar with community growth, user communication, content dissemination, and market rhythm
· Possess product thinking and basic coding skills, started using AI tools like Lovable in 2024 to develop and launch small projects
· Proficient in AI tools, have integrated AI into daily workflows for production, research, and efficiency improvement
· Two entrepreneurial experiences, mainly responsible for user growth, marketing, and commercialization
· Fluent in English for daily communication, able to participate in English meetings
· Skilled in video editing, strong writing ability, with internet sense and aesthetics
· Hobbies include reading, watching movies, listening to music, and sports; favorites are Ma Boyong, Nolan, Jay Chou, and Messi 😆
· Very familiar with football, wrote homepage recommendation articles, invited to sign with Hupu Sports; also served as assistant news officer at a top domestic club
I am qualified for but not limited to the following positions:
Growth, community, operations, BD, APAC market roles in Web3 / Crypto projects;
User growth, content operations, product operations for AI or internet products;
Positions involving sports, content, community, and young users.
Additional info:
The process of engaging with Polymarket lasted over two months and taught me a lot.
Although I couldn’t join smoothly in the end, I am still very grateful for the experience;
The team members I met were professional, proactive, and friendly. I have no complaints about the team and still wish Polymarket all the best!
Finally
If you are looking for someone who:
Understands marketing, users, community, content dissemination, willing to learn quickly, capable of high-intensity execution, and willing to build long-term, a young person like me is welcome to contact me!
If you could help share this or recommend suitable positions to me, Peter would be very, very grateful!
Please DM me for the full resume
Thank you for reading this far,
Wishing everyone great trades in your own markets 🙏
😂 It's rare for me to sing a different tune with @ViewsOfChris, I hope Chris doesn't mind, I'll buy you a drink when you come back.
First of all, I 100% agree that choosing is more important than effort. I am a beneficiary myself. It was by some twist of fate that I entered the cryptocurrency industry, which made my life so exciting. Of course, if I hadn't entered, I would probably have been driving for Didi in a routine way.
What I don't quite agree with Chris on is whether stubbornly sticking to the crypto circle is a mistake. Speaking for myself, I definitely missed out on the hotspots like chips, storage, and CPUs.
By the end of 2025, my layout is energy, electricity. My view on AI has always been that electricity is the core demand, so in 2026, my main purchases in the AI field are electricity-related. Of course, compared to others, the increase in electricity was a bit lower, at most doubling.
Clearly, I missed out, so why do I disagree with Chris? It's because I also value AI and have invested in AI, but I didn't invest in the parts that rose the most, and a year ago I really couldn't have predicted those parts, they just rose a lot now, so I "regret" not investing earlier.
I won't regret this kind of missing out because my knowledge and understanding don't reach that level. Even if I had to do it 100 times over, I probably wouldn't pick the best-performing ones. This is beyond my capability, and I accept this kind of missing out gladly.
But what I can't accept is this: I report daily on the Strait of Hormuz, watch oil prices every day, but I didn't short WTI or set the right price. This kind of missing out I can't accept because it's within my capability.
So what I want to say is, part of what Chris said is right: embrace US stocks, embrace AI, but the premise is that you have to understand it, you have to be able to predict the logic of the next storage, the next chip, the next CPU. If you can't, you'll miss out again.
Choosing is indeed more important than effort, but not everyone can choose correctly.
I missed storage, but shorting WTI earned me a good return. I missed chips, but energy returns were decent. I missed CPUs, but my $BTC is profitable. This shows my cognition helps me make money, which is the most important thing for me.
I will also work hard to improve my cognition to try to make more money, but before that, I think it's better to study hard and expand my knowledge to avoid choosing blindly like a headless fly (gambling).
Finally, I strongly agree with Chris that most altcoins will go to zero, but that doesn't mean you can't make money. As long as it's within your coverage and you can make money through your knowledge, that's good.
Chris Lee
Choices are always more important than effort.
If this round you stubbornly stick to the crypto circle and miss out on chips, storage, CPUs, and optical modules, you will perfectly avoid the entire big wave of AI asset appreciation.
I can only advise: turn back while you still can. Major cryptocurrencies still have opportunities, but the vast majority of altcoins will go to zero. Don't get addicted to them. Steadily manage your asset allocation and catch the big AI wave over the next 5 to 10 years—humanity's last industrial revolution!
It's very important to clearly see the direction ahead; choices are always more important than effort.
The lazy mode lasts until Monday, which is the last day. Tomorrow is the last day of rest before I have to work hard to make money. Recently, there aren't many opportunities for certain profits left, which is also related to my skill level. Currently, the most certain thing for me is shorting WTI. I'm still shorting it now; although I've reduced my position somewhat, seeing that the funding rate is no longer high, I'm preparing to add some positions on rallies. If it keeps dropping all the way down, I'll accept it.
The current opening price is around $97. I'm planning to add more if it can return to $95. The first target price is still $85. Additionally, I plan to move part of my position to brokers to save some costs. Also, I'm looking for projects with high funding rates to see if there are opportunities to arbitrage funding rates. If feasible, I'll take some money out to do an experiment and share the results with friends.
The current market trend is still a game of war between Iran and the US. The dispute around the Strait of Hormuz continues. This time, French and British warships have also entered the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian foreign minister stated that this move could likely escalate tensions in Hormuz. Honestly, Iran's strategy of leveraging its position to command others has indeed caused trouble for the global economy. This farce should come to an end.
Back to Bitcoin data, there’s nothing new over the weekend. Trading volume and liquidity are pitifully low. I have repeatedly emphasized that the current $BTC price fluctuations have no essential connection with the crypto market. Instead, US macro, political, and economic factors affecting the US interfere with Bitcoin. The BTC price is often determined by short-term investors; the less turnover among short-term investors, the stronger BTC’s price.
#Bitget Come and be VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
Recently, I've also been researching this direction, but I'm still somewhat a beginner, so I hope to learn from the experts.
According to Teacher Wufan, the current funding rate for $CRCL on Binance is indeed ridiculously high, so arbitraging the funding rate should be a good strategy.
Since it's arbitrage, it must be a relatively low-risk approach. What I currently think of is buying $100,000 worth of CRCL stock through a broker, then shorting CRCLUSDT with $100,000 at 1x leverage on Binance to capture the funding rate.
This should be the most basic method, but considering the risk if CRCL surges dramatically, I will add two steps. The first is to buy OTM CALL options, for example, buying CRCL at $150, and then prepare 1.5 times the margin on Binance to guard against extreme market conditions.
I plan to buy about 3 OTM CALLs, and here is a formula.
For example, if I short $100,000 CRCLUSDT, the funding fee is 0.5% every 8 hours.
There are three periods per day, roughly:
$100,000 × 0.5% × 3 = $1,500 per day
If I plan to hold for 3 days, the theoretical funding fee is approximately:
$1,500 × 3 = $4,500
But the total capital I need to leverage is about $280,000. After deducting the $1,500 cost of the OTM CALLs and some miscellaneous fees, the approximate profit is around $2,800, with an actual annualized return of about 100%.
If it were me, I would suggest that if friends have a $CRCL position, short-term arbitraging the funding rate is feasible. However, if you don't have a $CRCL position, this kind of arbitrage feels a bit exhausting.
wu fan
If Binance connects US stock accounts
allowing US stock positions and Binance to share unified margin
I can use US stock positions to open short hedges and earn funding fees
This way there is no risk of price spikes
I can use part of the crcl position to open short hedges and arbitrage funding fees
An annualized 500% funding fee really makes my mouth water
Unfortunately, I can only watch and not act
If you have positions in US stocks
but open shorts for arbitrage on Binance
large positions still carry risks
In case of poor liquidity after hours and a sharp surge
hedging short positions carry great risks
Although the hedge on the US stock side earns profits
the capital turnover is not fast enough to arrive and cover margin
If Binance liquidates and then the price falls again
arbitrage fails and you lose principal, which is not worth it
Bitcoin breaks through $80,000, how are high-net-worth and small-scale investors reacting?
Data shows that high-net-worth investors holding more than 10 $BTC are still maintaining an increasing trend in their holdings, and the actual increase is greater than that of small-scale investors holding less than 10 BTC.
However, both high-net-worth and small-scale investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin, even as its price surpasses $80,000.
Looking at more detailed data, high-net-worth investors show almost no interest in Bitcoin’s price fluctuations and remain in a buying state, even after a rollercoaster ride, they continue buying. In contrast, small-scale investors are more sensitive to short-term price changes and show clear hesitation once the price hits $80,000.
This is why I have always said that more Bitcoin is gradually flowing to long-term, high-net-worth holders.
#Bitget comes as VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, a one-stop global opportunity layout
Phyrex.Ni
Bitcoin price exceeds $80,000, will investors continue accumulating?
Last week we discussed whether investors would keep accumulating if Bitcoin's price surpassed $80,000. From the data at that time, investor buying interest remained very high.
Of course, this is not due to any positive news about $BTC itself, but because last week there were signs of a comprehensive ceasefire between the US and Iran, prompting some investors to speculate on BTC's price rising.
Looking at this week, BTC's price has increased, but the number of 30-day positions held on exchanges has been steadily decreasing, not decreasing in line with the price rise.
This data clearly tells us that at least as of this morning, investors still believe that with the end of the US-Iran conflict and the expectation of smooth passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin's price is expected to continue rising.
So even when Bitcoin's price exceeds $80,000, investors continue to accumulate and buy $BTC.
However, it should be noted that this is not a change in Bitcoin's own narrative, but a consequence of its correlation with the US stock market. Today's Bitcoin is essentially no different from the BTC that nearly fell below $60,000 just over a month ago.
#Bitget VIP is here! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
In the field of prediction market startups, Chess should be one of the few entrepreneurs who can achieve results.
Chessxyz
Brothers, after working hard in Hainan for two months, we finally launched. There are still many imperfections and incomplete features, but the basic experience is already very good.
All players and friends who like to play prediction markets can download and try out our product. Also, any airdrops from the official @Polymarket will be 100% credited to your account. The Bagel wallet uses the @privy_io solution, so it is a 100% on-chain wallet. You manage it yourself; we do not do any centralized custody.
The World Cup is coming soon. You can watch the game and place bets at the bar, say goodbye to all web-based products, and everyone is welcome to try it out. Outside of mainland China, you can find "Bagel Predict" by searching in the Apple Store. Scroll down a bit, and you will find it. We just launched and haven't had time to do ASO yet.