陈桂林谈交易
陈桂林谈交易
There is a trend to play the trend, and there is no trend to play the fluctuation.
0Following
1.4Kfollowers
Feed
Feed
Talking about the cost basis and logic of altcoins:
1. Cost:
$SOL / $XRP / both entered based on technical analysis, SOL at 87, XRP at 1.42, currently holding... Previously set a 5% stop loss, now the stop loss has been moved up.
$AAVE and $OKB were also traded, but the entry price was not good, got stopped out directly, and there are some other miscellaneous small altcoins not worth mentioning.
2. Logic:
BTC has now broken through the daily MA120 but is suppressed by the daily MA200; essentially, trading them is in anticipation of a catch-up rally and the possibility of a more violent surge triggered by BTC breaking above the daily MA200.
Altcoins have different rhythms, for example, $HYPE, $TAO, $ZEC lead BTC by making a move first, while most altcoins lag behind BTC; so among those lagging altcoins, select some that meet conditions like high risk-reward ratio, manageable stop loss, familiarity, and understanding to trade.
Additionally, the infrastructure bill is positive for altcoins, especially US-based ones. So far, Ethereum is still performing poorly, so it was avoided.
That's roughly it (the chart should make my point clear, right? Stop loss, move stop loss up).
陈桂林谈交易
To start with the conclusion:
Trump has one more week before his visit to China, and I believe that from now until the end of the visit (May 15), there shouldn't be any geopolitical surprises (negative factors).
Now the background:
The US stock indices have been trading sideways since the end of October last year, finally completing a risk release due to geopolitical reasons. During this period, many stocks including the MAGS7 group experienced a more thorough risk release.
Current situation:
This rally is led by the US stock storage sector, which drove the geopolitically suppressed US stocks to complete a trend upward; the rhythm I can sense is—the leaders keep rising, MAGS catch up, other sectors rotate (with AI still the focus), and then junk stocks flood the market, but so far, junk stocks have not flooded the market yet.
Key point: the crypto space:
Many say the crypto market is junk, purely dragged by the US stock market, and there is definitely some sentiment involved; however, it should be noted that during the period when US stocks were suppressed and falling due to geopolitical pressure, the crypto market was actually quite resilient and had its own rhythm (after falling a lot, it rises). So, if we treat the crypto market as a small US stock market? (Bitcoin as the leader, MEME leading sentiment, mainstream coins catching up, junk finishing?) Now, I believe we are at the stage of mainstream coins catching up. (This has also been the strategy I've been advocating since Bitcoin broke 80,000, with multiple reminders in X and the community.)
There is no market that only falls without rising, nor one that only rises without falling. When the bears start to surrender and turn bullish, we need to be more cautious—watch the timing and sentiment.
$CRCL pre-market earnings report today. Judging from COIN's trend, it should at least be decent.
The key points have been mostly covered by the experts, it's just about watching the growth rate of other businesses. Although they don't account for much now, their potential is what determines future valuation.
For this stock, after the initial FOMO period, it's easier to approach it rationally. Small-cap stocks are highly volatile, so you can't go all-in, but you can't be completely out either; the answer is to hold a base position, buy more on dips, and you won't miss out if it takes off. Simply put, you should earn what you can on such stocks. Going all-in on highly volatile stocks is too stressful and doesn't align with trading discipline.
Therefore, you have to treat the target rationally and consider opportunity costs logically.
Several altcoin targets selected by the community recently.
$DOGE and $SOL have both gained over 10%;
$XRP hasn't reached that yet;
$AAVE could have gained if managed well, but I didn't manage it well, so I missed out.
Fortunately, all of these have moved well away from their cost lines, so stop-losses can be raised; from a trading perspective, this trade has turned from a potentially losing one into one that can't lose money.
Killing BTCD requires the effort of major coins!!!
陈桂林谈交易
$SOL has gained 10%+, and it seems $XRP is about to take off too?
Still a preemptive call, with logic, target, and time window all provided.
If you happen to have 10,000 U on a meme coin, doubling it means earning 10,000 U; if you dare to put 100,000 U on mainstream coins, 10% gain means earning 10,000 U.
I believe this reasoning should be clear to everyone, right?
Screenshot of the $CRCL perpetual contract rates on Binance, OKX, and Hyper at the same time.
Note that Binance and OKX settle every 8 hours, while Hyper settles every 1 hour.
Honestly, for crypto stock traders, CEXs are still not very friendly. The pain points are that the on-chain spot depth is quite average, and the perpetual contract rates are extremely high.
If these two aspects can be optimized, I believe many people who trade stocks with traditional brokers would consider exchanges as a second option. After all, for most people and those with a bit of capital, constantly switching between USD, USDT, and CNY is quite troublesome.
A while ago, one of the windows I frequently used stopped working.
$SOL has gained 10%+, and it seems $XRP is about to take off too?
Still a preemptive call, with logic, target, and time window all provided.
If you happen to have 10,000 U on a meme coin, doubling it means earning 10,000 U; if you dare to put 100,000 U on mainstream coins, 10% gain means earning 10,000 U.
I believe this reasoning should be clear to everyone, right?
Look at the time window and the chart acceleration.
Then whether you can make some profit depends on both skill and luck (when playing altcoins).
After all, some rise a lot, some rise a little, and some are just crawling.
陈桂林谈交易
To start with the conclusion:
Trump has one more week before his visit to China, and I believe that from now until the end of the visit (May 15), there shouldn't be any geopolitical surprises (negative factors).
Now the background:
The US stock indices have been trading sideways since the end of October last year, finally completing a risk release due to geopolitical reasons. During this period, many stocks including the MAGS7 group experienced a more thorough risk release.
Current situation:
This rally is led by the US stock storage sector, which drove the geopolitically suppressed US stocks to complete a trend upward; the rhythm I can sense is—the leaders keep rising, MAGS catch up, other sectors rotate (with AI still the focus), and then junk stocks flood the market, but so far, junk stocks have not flooded the market yet.
Key point: the crypto space:
Many say the crypto market is junk, purely dragged by the US stock market, and there is definitely some sentiment involved; however, it should be noted that during the period when US stocks were suppressed and falling due to geopolitical pressure, the crypto market was actually quite resilient and had its own rhythm (after falling a lot, it rises). So, if we treat the crypto market as a small US stock market? (Bitcoin as the leader, MEME leading sentiment, mainstream coins catching up, junk finishing?) Now, I believe we are at the stage of mainstream coins catching up. (This has also been the strategy I've been advocating since Bitcoin broke 80,000, with multiple reminders in X and the community.)
There is no market that only falls without rising, nor one that only rises without falling. When the bears start to surrender and turn bullish, we need to be more cautious—watch the timing and sentiment.
Lately on X, I often see a group of people talking about $MU and $SNDK having low PEs, saying they are vastly undervalued;
I'm more of an outsider, but isn't a low PE normal for cyclical industries like memory?
Now prices are rising, PE is low, experts are making calls, retail investors are FOMOing—has AI's new normal really changed the logic of the storage industry? Or am I just too inexperienced to see clearly? Is this a distortion of human nature or a moral decline?
Is there any knowledgeable expert who can explain? If no one does, I'm going all in!
The primary productive force of my personal trading system---mindset;
On the importance of the mental victory method, daily psychological massage in the community.
For those not in the community, remember to give yourself some psychological massage from time to time, don't set your expectations too high, just being able to make a profit is good enough.
