Lei06

Amazing, this dance can also be paired with opera 👍

BTC today $81,348, 24h volatility less than $1,000. You might think there's nothing much to say—right, there's just no movement. But one thing is interesting: BTC hasn't risen, but the number of short sellers has been increasing over the past 4 hours. Currently, 58% of accounts are shorting BTC at $81K. One possibility is: these people see something the bulls haven't noticed—Fed inflation expectations heating up, Strategy pausing purchases, and the $70K prediction being brought up again. Another possibility is: they plan to use stop-loss orders once again to help BTC rise. Fear & Greed: 47 (Neutral). At $81K, shorts are increasing, big buyers have paused, but $80K still holds—someone in this situation will break first.

BTC today $81,348, up less than 1% in 24h, highest $81,499, lowest $80,568—throughout the day, it just oscillated within a box of less than $1,000. First, let's talk about a number that this series has been tracking recently. Short position ratio for the last 10 periods: 55.90% → 56.16% → 56.34% → 56.91% → 57.66% → 57.94% → 57.57% → 57.46% → 57.51% → 58.25% (latest) Out of these 10 periods, 9 have been rising. Currently, 58.25% of accounts are shorting BTC. Note: BTC’s price has basically not moved in these 10 periods—but the number of short sellers has quietly increased. Plain explanation: It’s not that BTC is falling and more people are shorting because of that. BTC hasn’t fallen, yet more people think "it should fall" and are shorting it. There are two possibilities: One: These shorts are right. BTC has been holding at $80K for so long, accumulating downward pressure—once it breaks, it will be a big drop. Today’s news also says the Fed’s latest forecast predicts inflation will heat up, delaying rate hikes and cuts, and the $70K prediction is back in discussion. The other: These shorts are wrong. Those who shorted at $79K are still holding at $80K; those who shorted at $80K are still holding at $81K—every step BTC moves up, previous shorts move closer to losses. 58% of accounts shorting means 58% of accounts are potential stop-loss buy orders. A new variable appeared today: Strategy, the world’s largest BTC institutional holder, recently paused buying. This company used to buy BTC weekly, but suddenly stopped. Not selling, just stopped buying. But "losing a big buyer" itself is a signal—the market is waiting to see when they will start buying again. $80K still holds, shorts are increasing, big buyers paused, and the Fed is scaring people again— What BTC is doing today is neither rising nor falling, it’s making everyone uncomfortable. Bulls are unsatisfied, shorts aren’t profiting, everyone is waiting. $BTC

UTC intraday +6%, 24h +22%. But what’s most worth watching today isn’t the increase, it’s the arc line this series has been tracking all along. Latest 10 periods of long position ratio: 56.42% → 61.56% → 55.50% → 54.27% → 50.93% → 56.54% → 57.35% → 57.20% → 60.41% → 60.94% (latest) Last time this series wrote about BILL, it described a W-shaped structure: from the high of 61.56%, it dropped all the way down to 50.93%—just 0.93 percentage points above 50%, almost reaching the long-short equilibrium line, then started to rebound. Today: 60.94%. From 50.93% rebounding to 60.94%, it rose a total of 10 percentage points. Just 0.62 percentage points shy of the previous series high of 61.56%. In plain terms: after the long position ratio hit the bottom, this group regained their confidence, and almost fully recovered it. This is no coincidence. The price rose 22% in 24h today, and the number of longs increased during the price rise—not forced, but actively entering. The question now is: is the previous high of 61.56% the next threshold to break? If the long ratio continues to rise and breaks above 61.56% to a new high, it means the bulls’ confidence is even stronger than at the last peak—usually in this case, the price still has room to grow. If it stops around 61%, just like last time, then it could be another starting point for a downward move. The W-shaped long position arc completed its right side today, just a breath away from matching the previous high—this 0.62 percentage point gap is the most important number to watch in today’s entire BILL story. $BILL

PallasGold Liquid Metal Paint, the opening chapter of Bentley's pure electric era Bentley uses the EXP 15 to start the prologue of its pure electric era. As a preview of the first mass-produced pure electric model in 2026, its inspiration comes from the legendary 1930 Speed Six "Blue Train": the iconic upright grille is reinterpreted with a matrix LED, the brand-new illuminated double-wing badge debuts, and the long hood with a fastback line recreates the classic Grand Tourer posture. The body’s Pallas Gold liquid metal paint contains ultra-thin aluminum pigments, which restore the vintage luster of old car nickel decorations without affecting radar and lidar operation. Inside, it breaks tradition with a three-seat layout—the driver’s seat is centered, the rear single seat is independent, and even a pet cabin is reserved, extending Bentley’s luxury from riding to companionship. It is not a car for mass production, but Bentley’s declaration for the future: In the electric era, elegance never compromises.

VanEck Executive: Bitcoin Expected to Return to All-Time High Within 12 Months On May 10, VanEck Digital Asset Research Director Matthew Sigel stated in an interview with CNBC that he expects Bitcoin to retouch its all-time high within the next 12 months. He pointed out that the current correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq is near a 5-year high, with the resilience of the U.S. stock market driving this rebound. However, the derivatives market still lacks clear optimism; the futures and options markets mainly reflect short covering and hedging demand. Therefore, from a contrarian perspective, the trend may still have room to continue. Matthew Sigel also mentioned that this year, a central bank has announced incorporating Bitcoin into its foreign exchange reserves, indicating that BTC is gradually becoming a global asset used for large cross-border transaction settlements. He believes this is a major trend. Regarding investment direction, he is more optimistic about Bitcoin's market share growth and Bitcoin mining companies benefiting from the AI integration trend. He stated that mining companies are becoming key beneficiaries of AI infrastructure, and as AI business grows, the pressure on miners to sell BTC for funding is decreasing. Additionally, Matthew Sigel believes that if the CLARITY Act passes, it could reignite sentiment in the altcoin market, but currently institutional investors remain cautious about most altcoins due to regulatory and investor protection concerns.

Yesterday, this series wrote about LAB, ending with a sentence: "$5.00, once passed, 71% of the shorts will start worrying about stop-loss." Today, it passed. LAB hit a high of $5.38 today, an absolute new high since this series started tracking LAB. Every time LAB breaks through an integer price level, this series records the same thing: 71% of the short accounts took another step toward losses today. This is not mocking the short sellers. The 71% shorts are not random—they have their own judgments and logic. At specific points in time, their judgment is "this price is too high, it should fall." The problem is, every time this sentence is said, LAB rises further. The number of short sellers hasn’t decreased, but the price keeps pushing their stop-losses closer. This is the structure this series has been tracking: It’s not that the bulls have won, but the shorts haven’t given up yet. The moment they give up is the real acceleration. LAB is $5.12 today, with a high of $5.38—$5.00 held, and the cost of holding it is borne by 71% of the shorts. $5.00 was passed, then $5.38—71% of the shorts’ stop-losses moved one step closer today. $LAB

Old Ma's XChat hasn't been used for so many days, seems like it's useless. Should I still keep it?

[Analysis: Bitcoin May Face Pullback Pressure, Market Sentiment Turns Cautious Ahead of CPI Release] Market analysis points out that with the US April CPI data set to be released on May 12, Bitcoin may face greater pullback pressure. The latest forecast from the Cleveland Fed shows that the overall US April CPI year-over-year may rise to 3.56%, higher than March's 3.3%, which could further reinforce market expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates in the short term, thereby suppressing risk assets like Bitcoin. The analysis states that although Bitcoin remained strong after several previous inflation data releases that exceeded expectations, current market support has weakened compared to before. Especially after Strategy paused Bitcoin purchases, institutional absorption capacity for new Bitcoin supply has declined, and market sensitivity to CPI data may rise again. Technically, Bitcoin's daily chart is forming a classic "rising wedge" pattern. If the price breaks below the key support level around $84,000, it may further test near $70,000; if it successfully breaks above the 200-day moving average resistance, it could open an upward space between $90,000 and $95,000. $BTC

Today, an on-chain data firm called Santiment made a somewhat unsettling observation: The bullish voices for BTC on social media are soaring today. But BTC itself remains motionless. BTC is at $80,787 today, with a 24h range of less than $1,000, making it one of the quietest days recently. Santiment's conclusion: this rally might be temporary. The logic is straightforward. You bought BTC at $70K, now it's $80K, what do you do? If you plan to hold, you don’t need to post anything; you just wait. If you start saying on social media, "BTC is going to $100K!", one possibility is you’re pumping yourself up, another is you’re trying to find someone to take the bag for you—whether consciously or not, both are true. When bullish voices multiply, there are two explanations: One is: many newcomers haven’t entered yet, and these voices are recruiting them—meaning the rally still has fuel. The other is: most who want to enter already have, and the remaining "bullish voices" are just those already in, cheering each other on—so where is the new buying pressure? Santiment’s concern today is the second scenario. Market sluggishness itself is a signal. A market genuinely brewing a big rally isn’t this quiet. BTC at $80K moved only 0.14% intraday UTC, with a 24h range shorter than the length of the Shanghai subway—this isn’t storing energy, it’s waiting for someone to make a decision. Waiting for whom to decide? Waiting for those hovering around $80K to finally choose "in" or "out". The louder the calls, the more cautious the steps—this is what Santiment is saying today, and BTC’s standstill at $80K confirms it. $BTC